Real Wealth #306 02/27/2012
Beware of a Black Swan event: Syrian Conflict Threatens World's Financial Markets
I've issued a recommendation earlier today to hedge your stock portfolios via my Gold and Energy Advisor Update that should be in your in email box. I've recommended a Short Put Strategy.
I'm issuing this hedge recommendation over my growing concern that events in the Syria and Middle-East may spin out of control.
The U.S. State Department has begun coordinating with Syria’s neighbors to prepare for the handling of President Bashar al-Assad’s extensive weapons of mass destruction if and when his regime collapses. Last week the State Department sent a diplomatic demarche to Syria’s neighbors Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, and Saudi Arabia, warning them about the possibility of Syria’s WMDs crossing their borders and offering U.S. government help in dealing with the problem.
For concerned parties both inside and outside the U.S. government, the demarche signifies that the United States is now placing a priority on developing plans to deal with the dangers of a post-Assad Syria.
Syria is believed to have a substantial chemical weapons program, which includes mustard gas and sophisticated nerve agents, such as sarin gas, as well as biological weapons. Syria possess the ability to deliver these weapons via ballistic missile. In addition, Syria has refused IAEA requests to make available facilities that were part of its nuclear weapons program and may still be in operation.
Last week the Saudi's Diplomats walked out of a regional Arab meeting dealing with events taking place in Syria. The Saudi's instead declared the meeting ineffective and called for the arming the rebel forces in Syria.
Meanwhile Great Britain, United States are preparing to use NATO to impose a no-fly zone over Syrian territory along the lines of the one imposed on Libya. The no fly zone would be authorized by the Arab League.
I'm concerned that this is all coming like a cart before the horse. So far there is no evidence that Bashar al-Assad and his regime have any intention of stepping down.
Moreover I'm growing concerned that Assad with the blessing of the Iranian's will use its chemical weapons on its own people to put down the revolution taking place. It's not likely that Saudi's will stand by and watch 5,000, 10,000 even 100,000 Sunni Muslims fall victim to a genocide. Further, I'm worried that the use of these horrible weapons might not be limited to Syria's borders. The danger of Syria using missiles armed with chemical warheads on both Saudi and Israeli targets cannot be ignored. Should Assad become desperate enough he could well plunge the Middle-East into war.
Assad has already imported approximately 15,000 Iranian troops that are aiding Assad's military in battling the country's freedom fighters. As of now Iran and Russia are actively re-arming the Assad regime.
Compounding all of this is Iran's declaration that it reserves the right to "preemptive military action if it feels threatened". In short, with talk growing that Israel is preparing to strike Iran's nuclear infrastructure we could see this attempted Syrian revolution blow up into a regional multiple front war. The danger is growing.
Most of Wall Street's players are not giving this conflict and the potential dangers enough attention. They're making a huge mistake. Should a full scale shooting war break out involving Syria, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Israel the flow of oil from the Middle-East could be partially or entirely shut-off for several days or a few months.
Any potential interruption in the flow of oil would send the price of oil back towards $150 a barrel. Any actual interruption of the flow of all combined with the use of chemical weapons would send oil well over $200 a barrel short term and send the world's stock markets into a spiral.We could see the Dow take a 2,000 even 4,000 point nose dive as hostilities intensify.
I'm concerned so I want to hedge my stock portfolio and refuse to do so until I get the word out to my subscribers. I'm hoping my concerns are overblown. I'm hoping all the risk will subside. So far in Gold and Energy Advisor's model portfolio we've been writing puts using just $25,000 of our $50,000 model portfolio. This strategy allows followers of my model portfolio to either net a nice healthy return on money risked by simply agreeing to buy some of our favorite oil plays without actually taking a position. If the puts are called then this strategy at worst puts us in these favorite plays at less than they would cost to buy outright. So far this year we have used this Short Put Strategy to take in a $1095 profits.
If want to be more aggressive and agree with me the risk of a "Black Swan" event in the Middle East then I strongly suggest signing up for www.GoldandEnergyOptions.com. We're watching events overseas closely and if I believe the danger rises to the point that I think the world's financial markets are in danger of a precipitous drop I and my staff will issue options recommendations designed to leverage any sudden decline into some hefty profits.
Go directly to http://www.goldandenergyoptionstrader.com/page/geo/ and click on the subscribe page. This Syrian/Iranian conflict could get ugly and tragic. It may also be smart to hedge your investment portfolio with the proper options. The first 30 days of my Gold and Energy Options Trader is just $1 and then just $99 a month but not for long. My track record has been so good we are raising the yearly and monthly subscription price dramatically higher in the next 30 days.
P.S. PLEASE READ THE RISK DISCLOSURE STATEMENT CLOSELY on my Gold and Energy Options Trader website. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF SUCCESS.
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