The Week Ahead

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Monday, January 28, 2007      

The weakness in the market came temporarily to an end with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ 100 and S&P 100 moving higher for the week.

The Daily Squeezeometer signals for the NASDAQ 100 remains sell/sell short. The S&P 100 remains sell/sell short. The weekly NASDAQ 100 moves from pullback in an uptrend to downtrend while the weekly S&P 100 remains in a downtrend.

Our monthly signals move from rally in a downtrend to downtrend for both the S&P 100 and NASDAQ 100. Monthly signals may turn negative on Thursday after the close if the week sees deterioration.

Our 14-day choppiness index for the NASDAQ 100 moved from 37 to 41. This index ranges from 0 to 100, and the lower it goes the more a trend is evolving. The S&P 100 choppiness index moved from 34 to 43.

The NASDAQ 100 remains below its weekly DMA Channel as does the S&P 100. We note our Erlanger Big Barf Indicator (EBB) remains negative.

THE TOP FIVE FACTORS

The top five areas facing the market in this trading week are:

1       Geopolitical and Fiscal Events.  President Bush delivers his last State of The Union speech. The director of the Congressional Budget Office speaks on Thursday about the economy.

2       Economic Releases. There are several economic releases of note this week other than the weekly oil/gas numbers.

3       Earnings Releases.  The fourth quarter of earnings releases continue this week. See the earnings section.

4       Conferences. There are several conferences of note this week. See the conferences section.

5       Company, Analyst and Regulatory Meetings. Type 1s: none of note. Type 4s: NNDS.

 

We continue to emphasize noting Type 1s, Short Squeezes, which may be taken higher by positive news and Type 4s, Long Squeezes, which may be taken lower by negative news. Here's how the week shapes up:

 

Monday, January 28

• Please note that during earnings season all Type 1s and 4s will be in a table attached after our daily reviews.
• Also, when there are several conferences you will now find a table with details attached after our daily reviews.
• December New Home Sales are released at 10:00 a.m. and expected to drop to 645,000 from 647,000.

 Tuesday, January 29

• December Durable Goods are released at 8:30 and expected to rise to 1.9% from a revised drop in November of -0.1%. At 10:00 a.m., the January Consumer Confidence is released and is expected to drop to 87.00 from 88.60.

Wednesday, January 30

*        Q4 GDP (preliminary) is released at 8:30 and expected to grow 1.2% from 4.9% in Q3.

*        The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets and announces any interest rate decision change.

*        NDS Group (NNDS) holds its investor day and is a Type 4 Long Squeeze.

Thursday, January 31

• December Personal Income is due out at 8:30 and expected to remain at a growth rate of 0.4% which is where November came in at when reported in December.

Friday, February 1

• January Nonfarm Payrolls is due out at 8:30 and expected to rise to 65,000 from 18,000 with January Unemployment expected to remain at 5.0%. At 10:00 a.m., December Construction Spending is due to drop to -0.53% from an increase of .1%

 STOCK SPLITS THAT ARE SHORT SQUEEZES

 

None of note.

                                      

STOCK SPLITS THAT ARE LONG SQUEEZES

 

None of note.

 

EARNINGS CALANDER

CONFERNCE TABLE